On Tuesday, November 18, the College Football Playoff committee released the latest rankings for the College Football Playoff, based on the AP Top 25 poll after Week 12 of the regular season. While the top four teams remained unchanged, the other eight teams in the 12-team playoff structure have shifted significantly in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the remaining 13 teams in the Top 25 are on the outside looking in. Let’s take a look at which bubble teams still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs and which teams have no chance at all.

One team that has no shot at making the playoff is Texas. The Longhorns fell to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the committee’s third of six rankings. Even if they run the table and finish with a win over No. 3 Texas A&M, they still may not qualify for a playoff spot.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, does have a chance. The Irish sit at No. 9, one spot ahead of No. 10 Alabama. The selection committee continues to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing—not necessarily for who they’re beating. Alabama, ranked 10th, has four wins over CFP Top 25 opponents, including No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee, and No. 22 Missouri, who re-entered the rankings this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked opponent is against No. 15 USC.

While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is the new favorite in the Group of Five race after Navy knocked South Florida out of that spot.

With three Saturdays staying before Selection Day, several games still have the potential to reshape the playoff picture—leaving hope alive for bubble teams. The bubble watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far, as well as historical trends regarding teams clinging to postseason hopes. For each Power Four conference, we list the last team in and the first team out. These are the true bubble teams, along with those still mathematically alive and those officially eliminated. Now let’s dive into each conference to break down which teams are in, which are on the outside looking in, and which are out of playoff contention.

Southeastern Conference (SEC)-

Teams currently in the playoff picture: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.

Last team in: Alabama
Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Crimson Tide out of the top 12, but it did place them in must-win mode and behind the Sooners in the rankings. With only one SEC loss, Alabama still has the best chance of any SEC team to reach the conference championship game.

First team out: Vanderbilt
No. 14 Vanderbilt jumped ahead of three-loss Texas despite losing to the Longhorns earlier this season but stays a long shot for an at-large bid. The Commodores would need wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, combined with significant chaos above them—such as an Alabama loss to Auburn, a Miami loss to Pitt, and BYU losing to Cincinnati—to even have a path.

SEC teams still in the mix: None
SEC teams eliminated: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas.

Big Ten-

Teams currently in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon.

Last team in: Oregon
Oregon’s position could change quickly with a loss to USC, especially due to concerns about its No. 31 strength of schedule. Their Nov. 8 win at Iowa has diminished in value now that Iowa has fallen out of the rankings, and the Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana. Their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game remain slim.

First team out: USC
USC boosted its résumé with a close win over Iowa, which has since dropped out of the Top 25. The Trojans’ two losses—both competitive and on the road—came against Illinois and Notre Dame. USC has a key win over No. 18 Michigan, giving them a tiebreaker advantage in the Big Ten standings. If USC beats Oregon and avoids an upset loss to UCLA, the Trojans could replace the Ducks as the Big Ten’s final playoff team. They would still likely remain behind Notre Dame due to the head-to-head loss.

Still in the mix: Michigan
the difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that Michigan is still mathematically alive for the Big Ten title game. A narrow 24–22 win over Northwestern kept their season alive. Michigan still has a chance to defeat No. 1 Ohio State, which would be the best win in the country. If Michigan runs the table, it will have one of the strongest two-loss résumés nationally—but their placement would still depend on USC and Oregon’s outcomes.

Big Ten teams eliminated: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin.

Big 12-

Team currently in: Texas Tech.

Last team in: Texas Tech
Ranked No. 5, the Red Raiders are within reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance to win the Big 12. They have a bye this week but could clinch a spot in the conference title game if Cincinnati and Arizona State both lose. Their loss to Arizona State won’t keep them out if they finish as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, especially now that Arizona State has risen to No. 25, improving the feeling of that defeat. Texas Tech ends the season against 4-7 West Virginia.

First team out: BYU
BYU dominated TCU last week and stays second in the Big 12 championship race behind Texas Tech. The Cougars can clinch a title-game appearance with a win over Cincinnati and losses by Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the Big 12, they would be a playoff lock—but a close or poor performance in a loss would likely eliminate any chance of an at-large bid.

Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah
Eliminated: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)-

Team currently in: Miami.

Last team in: Miami
Ranked No. 15, Miami is the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and remains mathematically alive for the conference championship game. However, their best playoff path is via an at-large bid, since they have only a 7.1% chance of reaching the ACC title game. They must beat Virginia Tech and Pitt, then benefit from multiple losses above them to reach the top 10 by Selection Day. Miami may also need the committee to revisit their head-to-head win over Notre Dame.

First team out: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech escaped with a two-point win over 1–10 Boston College and is one win away from clinching a berth in the ACC title game. They also have a chance to notch a top five win against Georgia in their regular-season finale. If they lose to Georgia, they will need to win the ACC to have any playoff hope.

Teams still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia
Eliminated: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest.

Independents-

Team currently in: Notre Dame
Ranked No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame continues to pass the “eye test” despite trailing Alabama in strength of record and strength of schedule. Wins over Stanford and Syracuse to end the season should secure their playoff position.

Group of Five-

Team currently in: Tulane
Tulane has solid wins over Northwestern, Duke, and Memphis, and boasts the strongest combination of résumé and on-field performance among Group of Five contenders. Tulane and North Texas are the most likely American Athletic Conference title-game participants, with North Texas having the better odds of winning.

Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas

Projected Bracket-

Based on the committee’s third ranking, playoff seeding would be as follows:

First-Round Byes

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M (SEC champion)
4. Georgia

First-Round Games (Dec. 19–20, on campus)

• No. 12 Tulane (AAC champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
• No. 11 Miami (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
• No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
• No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinals (Cotton, Orange, Rose, Sugar — Dec. 31–Jan. 1)

• Tulane/Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
• Miami/Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
• Alabama/Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
• Notre Dame/Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

So, there you have it, a full look at how the College Football Playoff may unfold, which teams in each Power Four conference still have a chance to make it, and which ones are officially out as Week 12 of the regular season concludes.