The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders have faced each other 180 times in their history, but only once before have they met in the NFL playoffs—and never with as much on the line as there will be this Sunday in the 2025 NFC Championship game.

There is optimism for both teams. In the last four divisional rematches in a conference title game, the winner has gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Rams beat the 49ers on their way to a title in 2021, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in 2013, the Packers beat the Bears in 2010, and the Steelers beat the Ravens in 2008. The regular-season meetings don’t seem to matter; the Rams had been swept, the Steelers had swept, and the Seahawks and Packers had split their two games, just like the Eagles and Commanders this season. Those two games between Philadelphia and Washington were thrillers. In Week 11, the Eagles scored 20 straight points in the fourth quarter, including two Saquon Barkley touchdowns, to win 26-18. In Week 18, the Commanders trailed 27-14 in the fourth quarter before rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels threw three touchdown passes, the last with six seconds left, to rally Washington to a 36-33 win.

Biggest Strength for the Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia’s biggest strength is running back Saquon Barkley and the NFL’s No. 2 rushing attack, which has averaged 227 yards per game in the playoffs so far. The eliminated Baltimore Ravens actually averaged more, but the last team to average more in the playoffs before this season was the 1974 Steelers, who averaged 231. Add in quarterback Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles had 184 rushing yards and just one touchdown in their divisional win over the Rams. Philly’s ground-and-pound strength goes up against a vulnerability for the Commanders, but Detroit rushed for 201 yards on 23 carries last weekend, and the Commanders still beat the Lions by 14 points.

Biggest Question Mark for the Eagles

The Eagles’ passing game has been nearly nonexistent. They finished with 65 net passing yards on Sunday, the lowest in a playoff win in 14 years. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith combined for 35 yards on 11 targets, with a long of nine yards. If Washington’s defense can limit the run, can Philadelphia take advantage through the air? Hurts barely played before suffering a concussion in the Eagles’ Week 16 loss to the Commanders. In Philadelphia’s Week 11 win over Washington, he threw for 221 yards. So, despite recent struggles, it’s possible the Philly offense could show more balance than in the past two games.

X-Factor for the Eagles

Defensive lineman Jalen Carter is only 23, but his sack of Matthew Stafford in the final minute to seal the win over the Rams was a reminder of what a game-wrecker he can be. The Commanders will be without guard Sam Cosmi, who sustained a knee injury against the Lions, which sets up a weak spot on the interior of Washington’s offensive line. Backup Trent Scott started only one game this season. The Eagles’ record for sacks by a player in a playoff game is two, and it has happened seven times, including three times in the past two weeks.

How the Eagles Can Win This Matchup

The Eagles have passed for a total of 186 yards in two playoff games. Last week’s snowstorm contributed to Philadelphia having only 65 passing yards, but their lack of a productive passing game still seems unusual for an elite team in this era. However, the Eagles have figured out how they want to play. Saquon Barkley is going to carry the offense while the defense dominates. If Jalen Hurts’ knee injury, which he suffered in the divisional round, hinders him at all, there will be an even greater emphasis on Barkley, if that’s even possible. Philly’s approach has been working. The only bad game Philadelphia’s defense has had since September was against the Commanders in Week 16, and while that’s concerning for Sunday’s challenge against Jayden Daniels, expect defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to make adjustments. Philadelphia has gone old school, running the ball and playing defense to reach the NFC Championship game, and that formula will continue as long as they’re alive in this postseason.

Biggest Strength for the Washington Commanders

It isn’t even close: rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to improve and amaze, leading Washington to a seven-game winning streak. Daniels’ next touchdown pass will give him the NFL rookie record with five in a postseason. It’s a low number, but it shows how rare it is for a rookie to lead a team to victory in January. The Eagles held Daniels in check as well as anyone in the first meeting, limiting him to 191 passing yards and 18 rushing yards. In the second game, however, he had five touchdown passes and 81 rushing yards, a performance that foreshadowed his promising postseason ahead.

Biggest Question Mark for the Commanders

The biggest question for the Commanders is whether their defense can keep the Eagles under 30 points. Detroit scored 31 points against Washington despite five turnovers, racking up 521 yards of total offense. Washington is giving up 7.2 yards per play in the playoffs, the worst mark by any of the 14 playoff teams. Barkley alone averaged 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the two games against Washington, so the Commanders’ challenge is to get to Hurts and contain his scrambling ability while also keeping Barkley from breaking off game-changing runs.

How the Commanders Can Win

Every week, it’s the same answer: Jayden Daniels. While quarterbacks sometimes receive too much emphasis, the Commanders’ success really does revolve around their star rookie. The Commanders aren’t without talent, but their roster is clearly weaker than any other team in the NFL’s final four. However, they have a special quarterback. Washington turned it over five times in their Week 16 win over the Eagles. Since the end of September, the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points just once, and that was the 36 they allowed to Washington. The Commanders need to play the same efficient offensive football they’ve played most of the season, converting key fourth downs that head coach Dan Quinn often gambles on, and hope the defense can make enough plays to give Daniels a chance to win it at the end. That formula has produced many wins for Washington this season.

What to Expect in the NFC Championship Between the Eagles and Commanders

Expect a high-scoring game. Daniels has been so dangerous in late-game situations. The divisional win over the Lions ended a streak of games that Washington won on the final play. With two potent offenses going head-to-head, this could come down to red-zone execution. The Commanders ranked sixth in the regular season, while the Eagles ranked 13th. But on red-zone defense, Philadelphia ranked fifth and Washington 22nd. We expect the Eagles to hold on for a home win, advancing to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. The Eagles have lost only one game since September, and that was against the Commanders in Week 16—a game where Jalen Hurts left in the first quarter due to a concussion. The Eagles probably would have won that game if DeVonta Smith hadn’t stopped on a third-down pass late in the fourth quarter, which allowed Daniels to put together a game-winning drive, throwing his fifth touchdown with six seconds left.

The Commanders led in Philadelphia in the fourth quarter of their Week 11 matchup too, but the Eagles pulled away. Washington can compete because they are well-coached and have a dangerous quarterback, as the Detroit Lions can attest. The Eagles have the better team, with more talent across the roster and a 14-1 record since Week 4. Of their three losses, they allowed game-winning touchdowns with 34 seconds left in one (vs. Atlanta in Week 2) and six seconds left in another. That level of dominance should eventually carry the Eagles to a win in the NFC title game, but it won’t be easy.

Overall, expect this game to be a nail-biter until the final whistle. Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Washington 21. Fans can catch this matchup kicking off at 3 p.m. on Fox.