On Thursday, January 9, the No. 6-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions will face the No. 7-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Capital One Orange Bowl, one of two semifinal matchups for the College Football Playoff.

How These Teams Got Here
For both teams, the road to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff seemed unlikely. For starters, Notre Dame secured its biggest bowl win in decades on January 2, with a dominant 23-10 victory over No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Irish flipped the game in their favor in one minute around halftime, as Georgia was unable to mount a comeback. That win came after Notre Dame defeated Indiana in the first on-campus matchup on December 21.

As for Penn State, the Nittany Lions defeated Boise State 31-14 and could have won by an even larger margin with a stronger performance. The Nittany Lions also had two pick-sixes in the first half of their first-round matchup against SMU, securing an easy 38-10 win that was effectively over before halftime. This demonstrates how both of these programs reached the playoffs—one had a smoother path, while the other stunned many along the way.

How Both Teams’ Quarterbacks Stack Up
For Notre Dame, Riley Leonard continues to be a running weapon the Irish need to close out games. Leonard didn’t do much through the air against Georgia; he was just 15-of-24 passing for 90 yards and one touchdown. However, he rushed 14 times for 80 yards and helped seal the victory with a clock-killing drive in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s rushing performance against Georgia was his second-highest of the season, following a 10-carry, 83-yard game against Navy on October 26. For the season, Leonard has rushed 149 times for 831 yards and 15 touchdowns.

On the other hand, Drew Allar’s numbers haven’t been stellar in the College Football Playoff, but he did score three touchdowns against Boise State. Allar was 13-of-25 for 171 yards against Boise State and 13-of-22 for 127 yards against SMU. While Allar’s season completion percentage is over 67%, he hasn’t completed 60% of his passes in any of the three games since the end of the regular season.

Injury Concerns for Both Teams
Both teams have star players dealing with injuries. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter missed the entire second half of the Fiesta Bowl with an apparent left shoulder injury. Carter has 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks this season.

As for Notre Dame, they lost defensive end Rylie Mills for the season due to a leg injury suffered against Indiana, and defensive lineman Howard Cross went down in the second half of the win over Georgia. However, Cross returned to practice over the weekend and is expected to play on Thursday night. Jeremiah Love’s status for the Irish could be a bigger concern. The running back, who broke a 98-yard run against Indiana, didn’t play much afterward in that game and was limited in the Sugar Bowl due to a knee injury he has been dealing with.

Key Players to Watch

·       Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price: The sophomore is likely to become Notre Dame’s lead back if Love isn’t at full strength by Thursday. As Love has been hobbled, Price has had at least 10 carries in the last four games. Before this, he had more than eight carries just once in Notre Dame’s first 10 games of the season. For the year, Price has 110 carries for 720 yards and seven touchdowns. His yards per carry were higher earlier in the season when Leonard was the team’s biggest rushing threat. In the College Football Playoff, Price has rushed 21 times for 69 yards.

·       Penn State RB Kaytron Allen: Allen has been fantastic in the College Football Playoff for the Nittany Lions. He rushed 14 times for 124 yards in the Big Ten title game loss to Oregon, had 11 carries for 70 yards and two touchdowns against SMU, and rushed 17 times for 134 yards in the Fiesta Bowl, where the Broncos struggled to tackle him. Allen crossed the 1,000-yard mark in the Fiesta Bowl, finishing the season with 201 carries for 1,026 yards and eight touchdowns. With Nick Singleton also healthy in the backfield, Penn State has a 1-2 punch at running back that can rival Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.

What to Expect from Penn State vs. Notre Dame
This matchup promises a lot of excitement as both teams fight for a spot in the National Championship, though only one will come out on top. One key point that fans will be watching is how Notre Dame plans to defend Penn State’s offensive weapon at tight end, Tyler Warren. Warren had two touchdown catches against Boise State and is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. The big question is whether Notre Dame will assign defensive back Xavier Watts to cover Warren most of the night or rotate defenders. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted 397 passes against Notre Dame this season. If the Irish focus heavily on Warren, Allar may need to target other options, such as Harrison Wallace III, Penn State’s leading wide receiver. Wallace has 46 catches for 723 yards and four touchdowns, but he has fewer than half the catches Warren does.

Expect both teams to rely heavily on their backfields, as both defenses will make it tough for the quarterbacks to find the end zone through the air. Ultimately, this game is likely to be a nail-biter until the final whistle, with Penn State coming out on top 23-17. Fans can catch this matchup on ESPN, FuboTV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV on Thursday, January 9, with kickoff at 7:30 PM.