On Friday, January 10, the sixth-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes will face the third-seeded Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, for the right to advance to the National Championship game. The winner will play the victor of the Orange Bowl, which features Penn State and Notre Dame.

How These Teams Got Here

Ohio State: The Buckeyes are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff, having dominated their opponents by a combined score of 83–38 in the first two rounds. Ohio State first blew out Tennessee with a 42–17 win at home before taking control of Oregon in the Rose Bowl with a 41–21 victory. Ohio State led 31–0 midway through the second quarter of that game.

Texas: The Longhorns had a more dramatic path to the Cotton Bowl. In the Peach Bowl, Texas blew a 24–8 lead in the fourth quarter as Arizona State erased a 16-point deficit to tie the game in just over five minutes. The teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime after Texas missed a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. In the second overtime, Texas scored, and defensive back Andrew Mukuba sealed the win with an interception for a 39–31 victory. Earlier, the Longhorns defeated Clemson 38–24 in the first round.

How the Two QBs Compare

Ohio State’s Will Howard has been playing the best football of his career. Against Tennessee, Howard went 24-of-29 for 311 yards and two touchdowns while adding 37 rushing yards. In the Rose Bowl, he was 17-of-26 for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Before the College Football Playoffs, Howard had only thrown for 300 yards once all season. Overall, he is 268-of-369 passing for 3,490 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions, with seven rushing touchdowns.

Texas’ Quinn Ewers, on the other hand, has had a more uneven season. The Peach Bowl was a prime example of his up-and-down play. Texas initially sliced through Arizona State on its first possession but was fairly average for the rest of regulation outside of a fourth-quarter touchdown drive. However, Ewers found his rhythm in overtime, throwing two touchdowns in five plays. He finished the game 20-of-30 for 322 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, Ewers is 270-of-406 for 3,189 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. This will be Ewers’ first chance to face his former team, as he enrolled early at Ohio State, played one game as a freshman, and then transferred to Texas in 2022.

Home-Field Advantage for Texas

There is no doubt that the crowd at AT&T Stadium will be heavily in favor of Texas, with most fans likely wearing burnt orange. However, Ohio State fans travel well, so there should be a decent contingent of red in the stands, even though the Buckeyes are playing in their second consecutive Cotton Bowl.

Why Ohio State Will Cover in the Cotton Bowl

It’s hard to imagine this Ohio State team lost to an unranked Michigan at home to close out the regular season, given how dominant the Buckeyes have been in the College Football Playoffs. Ohio State crushed Tennessee 42–17 in the first round before knocking off top-seeded Oregon 41–21 in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. In both of these matchups, Ohio State came out strong, outscoring their opponents 35–0 in the first quarter of the Playoffs.

Why Texas Will Cover in the Cotton Bowl

Although Texas fell to Georgia 22–19 in overtime in the Southern Conference Championship, missing out on one of the four byes in the College Football Playoff, the Longhorns have regained their offensive form. After being held to fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games, Texas has scored at least 38 points in each of their playoff games. Texas defeated Clemson 38–24 in the first round before surviving a late run by Arizona State to win 39–31 in double overtime. Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw two of his three touchdowns in overtime and finished the game 20-of-30 for 322 yards. Ewers has thrown for over 3,000 yards for the second consecutive season, and with Texas’ No. 3 scoring defense, the Longhorns could be dangerous underdogs in this matchup.

Game-Breaking Wide Receiver

Ohio State’s freshman Jeremiah Smith was the first No. 1 overall receiver recruit since 2012, and he has already exceeded expectations. In just two playoff games, Smith has posted an incredible 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns against top-tier secondaries. Texas boasts one of the best secondaries in the country, highlighted by Thorpe Award winner Nickel Jahdae Barron, but they have yet to face a receiver with Smith’s caliber.

Incredible Defenses

While both Steve Sarkisian of Texas and Ryan Day of Ohio State are offensive-minded coaches, don’t be fooled—this Cotton Bowl will feature two of the top defenses in college football. Ohio State and Texas rank in the top three nationally in total defense, yards per play defense, and passing defense, and both are in the top four in scoring defense. Notre Dame and Penn State, by comparison, do not rank as highly in these categories.

Rushing Issues

Despite the attention on Quinn Ewers, Texas’ offense runs through its ground game. In 13 wins, Texas averages 4.8 yards per carry. In their two losses, they dropped to just 1.1 yards per carry. Even against Arizona State, a mid-tier rushing defense, the Longhorns managed only 53 yards on 30 carries. Ohio State, meanwhile, held Oregon to negative rushing yards (-23). This could be a major mismatch in the Cotton Bowl.

Players to Watch

Ohio State RB Treveyon Henderson: Henderson has been a standout in the College Football Playoffs. He had an impressive 66-yard touchdown run in the Rose Bowl and finished with 94 yards and two scores on eight carries. He also added three catches for 20 yards. Against Tennessee, Henderson rushed for 80 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. Henderson has 925 rushing yards on the season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and has emerged as a big-play threat.

Texas TE Gunnar Helm: Helm leads the Longhorns in receptions with 58, totaling 744 yards and seven touchdowns. His seventh touchdown, a game-winner in the Peach Bowl, came on a wide-open catch from Ewers. Helm has been a reliable target for Ewers in big games, including seven catches for 98 yards and a touchdown against Michigan, and five catches for 91 yards and a score against Oklahoma.

What to Expect from Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl

The big question is whether Clemson and Arizona State have exposed vulnerabilities in Texas’ pass defense, or if the yardage they allowed was simply a result of the Longhorns’ leads throughout much of those games. Texas has one of the best pass defenses in the country, allowing just 166 passing yards per game. However, they’ve given up 632 yards and four touchdowns through the air in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoffs, so Ohio State’s fast-paced passing game could prove challenging for them.

Expect a tightly contested matchup, unlike some of the one-sided games we’ve seen in the past. This Cotton Bowl should be a nail-biter as both teams fight for a spot in the National Championship to become the first-ever College Football Playoff champions in the 12-team format.

Final score prediction: Ohio State 31, Texas 27.

Fans can catch this exciting matchup on ESPN, Fubo, Sling TV, and YouTube TV. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM.